DBPapers
DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2016/B22/S10.116

INITIAL APPROBATION OF STOCHASTIC MODELLING FOR LAKE THERMOKARST AND PEATLAND PATTERNS IN PERMAFROST ZONE

T. Orlov, S. Sadkov, E. Panchenko, A. Zverev
Thursday 8 September 2016 by Libadmin2016

References: 16th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2016, www.sgem.org, SGEM2016 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-59-9 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 28 - July 6, 2016, Book2 Vol. 2, 909-916 pp

ABSTRACT
We report on developing the thermokarst and peatland modelling via the probabilistic
approach. Peatlands occupy a significant share of the cryolithozone area. They are
currently experiencing an intense affection by oil and gas field development, as well as
by the construction of infrastructure. Earlier we conducted a similar probabilistic
modelling for the areas of thermokarst development: appearance of a thermokarst
depression within each given area is an occasional event; growth of a new thermokarst
depression is a random variable independent on other depressions. The distribution of a number of thermokarst depressions (centers) at a random plot obey the Poisson law.
Lognormal distribution of diameters of thermokarst lakes is true at any time. For
peatlands hollow areas are lognormally distributed, while the ridge intersection points
follow the Poisson distribution.
The main result of the work is the initial approbation of stochastic modeling of rather
complex pattern of thermokarst lakes and ridge-hollow areas between them.

Keywords: mathematic morphology, remote sensing data, stochastic model,
thermokarst, peatlands, ridge-hollow