B. Mitrica, E. Mateescu, C. S. Dragota, A. Busuioc , I. Grigorescu, E. A. Popovici
Monday 5 August 2013 by Libadmin2013

References: 13th SGEM GeoConference on Energy And Clean Technologies, www.sgem.org, SGEM2013 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-03-2 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 16-22, 2013, 573 - 584 pp


Understanding the key drivers of agriculture in relation to climate change as well as their interrelationship with land management decisions and policies, one may be able to project future agricultural productions under certain economic, environmental, and social scenarios in order to minimize their negative impacts.
The paper objective is to assess the climate change impact on crop production in Oltenia Plain (Leu-Rotunda Plain) using the CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis) model. This model combines database (climate, soil and crop) with simulation algorithms of the main processes related to crop pattern and statistical algorithms for biophysical, economic and strategic analysis. In assessing the impact of climate change on maize and autumn wheat crops two applications of CERES model were used: CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize overlapping two regional climatic scenarios for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods. These models describe, based on daily data, the basic biophysical processes taking place at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface as a response to the variability of different processes such as: photosynthesis, specific phenological phases, evapotranspiration, water dynamics in soil etc.
The autumn wheat benefits from the interaction between the CO2 and air temperature increase, while the maize is more vulnerable to climate change, especially to hot and dry climate over the 2071-2100 period, under the SRES A1B scenario. Against the current climatic conditions, temperature increase over the two future periods brings about a decrease of the vegetation period for both crops. Under these conditions, the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration have a positive effect on autumn wheat photosynthesis, which might lead to increase yields, thus counteracting the negative effect of shortening the vegetation period. Under the same climate change conditions, the maize yield shrinks, more acute over the 2071-2100 period, due to temperature increase, which triggers shortening of the vegetation period coupled with water stress, especially during the flowering and yield formation interval (May-August).

Keywords: crop production, CERES model, climate change, Oltenia Plain, Romania