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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE MODELED THERMAL MATURITY IN BEGLEJ-KALENIK AREA (CENTRAL NORTH BULGARIA)

AUTHOR/S: N. BOTOUCHAROV
Sunday 1 August 2010 by Libadmin2007

7th International Scientific Conference - SGEM2007, www.sgem.org, SGEM2007 Conference Proceedings/ ISBN: 954-918181-2, June 11-15, 2007

ABSTRACT

Sensitivity maturity analysis is being used mostly in finding the best fitting
parameters for thermal modeling. The sensitivity of the models in Beglej-
Kalenik area demonstrates the importance of heat flow history - subject to
uncertainty due to complicated geology. The specific analysis includes patterns
based on two models (complex and constant), which responses are studied
with respect to possible variations.
The paper is focused on the conducting sensitivity analysis of sediment thermal
maturity, applying different heat flow scenarios for 5 key wells. It investigates
also results obtained in changing heat flow of constant model in order to fit
the measured and modeled vitrinite reflectance values (%Ro). The best fitting
results of simulations show that heat flow in complex scenarios should not
exceed 90 mW/m2 for rifting phases. It slightly varies between 48 and 56 mW/m2
for constant scenarios. Model sensitivity is greater after the time of deposition
of Jurassic rocks, affecting mostly the maturity outcomes. If applied heat flow is
complex with higher values for Triassic and Jurassic periods the hydrocarbon
realization from source rocks will be earlier than in a constant model.

Keywords: sensitivity analysis, thermal maturity, heat flow, complex and
constant models.