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MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO SIMULATE ANTHROPOGENIC LOADING AROUND POINT SOURCE IN ONE-DIMENSIONAL STATEMENT

N. V. Baranovskiy
Thursday 11 October 2018 by Libadmin2018

ABSTRACT

Anthropogenic load is the main cause of forest fires near settlements and various objects of transport or industrial infrastructure. It is proposed to mark out a point source of anthropogenic load. Similarity in the processes of propagation of anthropogenic load and diffusion heat transfer was used for simulations. The quantitative characteristic of the anthropogenic load is the virtual (possible) number of forest fires in a controlled forest-covered area. A one-dimensional mathematical model for estimating the spread of anthropogenic load from a point source is presented. The distributions of the virtual number of forest fires for typical data from a point source of anthropogenic load taking into account spatial and temporal dynamics are demonstrated. The main regularities of the distribution of anthropogenic load from a point source are marked out. The prospects of further development of this direction and creation of a system for assimilating data on the level of anthropogenic load are discussed.

Keywords: anthropogenic load, point source, virtual number of forest fires, forest fire danger, mathematical modeling


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