THE LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON LAKE USMA HYDROLOGICAL REGIME

Bakute, A.; Grinfelde, I.; Pilecka-Ulcugaceva, J.; Liepa, S.; Siltumens, K.
Abstract:
Changing climate variability and the type of land use are the main factors influencing the hydrological regime. The hydrological regime of the lake has a direct impact on biodiversity and has an impact on socio-economic processes in areas adjacent to the lake. The aim of the study is to predict and assess the impact of climate change and the change in the type of land use on the hydrological regime of Lake Usma. Two linear land-use change scenarios were used for modelling. Twelve climate scenarios were used to model climate variability. The modelling was carried out in two stages. First, METQ modelled the flows for sub-basins, each describing the type of land use using the conceptual hydrological model. The next step used land-use change scenarios to predict the flow rate for the period 2070-2100. The average, maximum and minimum flow-rate data rows for each scenario year were analysed to assess the expected changes in Lake Usma hydrological regime. The modelled average flow rates tend to grow in 7 out of 12 climate scenarios regardless of land use. The modelled maximum flow rates tend to rise in 10 out of 12 climate scenarios, regardless of land use. The modelled minimum flow rates have only 3 out of 12 climate scenarios, regardless of land use.
SGEM Research areas:
Year:
2021
Type of Publication:
In Proceedings
Keywords:
climate; hydrological regime; land use; hydrological modelling
Editor:
• Prof. DSc. Oleksandr Trofymchuk, UKRAINE • Prof. Dr. hab. oec. Baiba Rivza, LATVIA
Volume:
21
SGEM Book title:
21st International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2021
Book number:
3.2
SGEM Series:
SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference
Pages:
159-166
Publisher address:
51 Al. Malinov blvd, Sofia, 1712, Bulgaria
SGEM supporters:
SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci & Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts & Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; Croatian Acad Sci
Period:
7 - 10 December, 2021
ISBN:
978-619-7603-32-3
ISSN:
1314-2704
Conference:
21st International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2021, 7 - 10 December, 2021
DOI:
10.5593/sgem2021V/3.2/s12.24
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