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ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION/ADAPTATION: ASSESSMENT METHODS FOR LOCAL AND REGIONAL RELATIONSHIPS

Stevens, R. L.
Abstract:
Environmental change is, today, an unavoidable cause of societal stress that leads to suffering and migration. The focus here is not on change itself, but on the local and regional resources and environment conditions that frame both the extent of change and the alternative actions that might mitigate effects. In this context, a modelling approach to resource and risk assessment and possible responses change is presented. Complex systems are not initially suitable for a bottom-up approach to modelling that assumes known boundary conditions. Rather, issues in the human-environment nexus require first a careful definition of boundaries, characterization of inner relationships, and identification of the problems to be addressed (step 1). Once described, reality and the representative conceptual system are the basis for the analytical subdivision of parameters (step 2) that will be modelled in increasing detail with information collected for the case study. One common tool is the system structural analysis, which evaluates the impact of components on each other within the system. The following synthetic, or constructive, phase of modelling (step 3) builds upon the understanding gained in the preceding analytical phase. The weighed impacts of the components regarding specific scenarios are summed and used for decision support. This structured methodology will be used in a proposed workshop related to migration and environment at the 2018 SGEM Vienna Green Conference. The multidisciplinary background of the participants will need to be further complemented by external expertise and homeland knowledge related to the selected problems of environmental migration and adaptation. The aim is to jointly publish the results of the extended workshop cooperation.
SGEM Research areas:
Year:
2018
Type of Publication:
In Proceedings
Keywords:
environmental change; decision-support modeling; resources; migration
Volume:
18
SGEM Book title:
18th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM2018
Book number:
1.5
SGEM Series:
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference-SGEM
Pages:
283-290
Publisher address:
51 Alexander Malinov blvd, Sofia, 1712, Bulgaria
SGEM supporters:
Bulgarian Acad Sci; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Russian Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci & Arts; Slovak Acad Sci; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; World Acad Sci; European Acad Sci, Arts & Letters; Ac
Period:
3 – 6 December, 2018
ISBN:
978-619-7408-72-0
ISSN:
1314-2704
Conference:
18th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM2018, 3 – 6 December, 2018
DOI:
10.5593/sgem2018V/1.5/S02.035
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