DBPapers
DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2016/B31/S12.106

VERIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC

M.Vokoun, M. Hanel
Wednesday 7 September 2016 by Libadmin2016

References: 16th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2016, www.sgem.org, SGEM2016 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-61-2 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 28 - July 6, 2016, Book3 Vol. 1, 813-820 pp

ABSTRACT
Precipitation forecast has great significance for hydrological forecast, particularly for issuing flood alerts. Spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation influences runoff depths, especially in small basins.
The study aims at assessment of two short range precipitation forecasting approaches, with special focus on small basins in the Czech Republic with distinct orography. First verified approach is presented by deterministic forecast of the ALADIN-CZ (Aire Limitée, Adaptation Dynamique, Development International – Czech Republic) model with horizontal resolution 4.7 km. Second approach is based on an ensemble forecast system ALADIN-LAEF (Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) with horizontal resolution 11 km. The results show that the ensemble forecast provides more reliable boundary conditions for hydrological models compared to the deterministic forecast. Moreover, in comparison to the deterministic forecast, the ensemble averaging decreases initial condition uncertainty in the case of extreme rainfall events.

Keywords: validation, NWP, hydroprognosis, ALADIN