DBPapers
DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2016/B31/S12.043

FLOOD FORECASTING ON RIVER LENA DURING SPRING HIGH WATER IN AREA OF LOCATION OF POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS OBJECTS

T. Kapitonova, M. Lebedev, V. Timofeeva, D. Nogovitsyn, P. Struchkova
Wednesday 7 September 2016 by Libadmin2016

References: 16th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2016, www.sgem.org, SGEM2016 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-61-2 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 28 - July 6, 2016, Book3 Vol. 1, 329-334 pp

ABSTRACT
The most characteristic for Yakutia natural emergency situations (ES) are spring-summer high waters causing extensive, more than 70%, floods of territories and objects of infrastructure. A choice of region of solution of problem of forecasting is conditioned on the basis of location of already constructed and planned potentially dangerous objects that may be in the flooded area during the flood. In an area of Tabaga cape near an underwater passage of gas pipeline creation of main strategic object of transport construction of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) is projected – a road-and-rail bridge crossing across the river Lena with a length of 3.2 km. At the same time in this region a frequency of ice jamming and floods during the considered period of time is greater than 0.8.
There is presented an application of methodology of risk analysis, deciphering of satellite images and geoinformation technologies (GIS) to develop a mathematical model, which allows predicting danger of flooding from spring floods on the basis of statistical data obtained over 70 years and GIS modelling of flood zones. The proposed methodological approach allows one to obtain estimates of water level during spring floods in a certain period of time, and build models of studied dangerous process (a trend, harmonic and noise components) with sufficient accuracy and visualize flooded areas, as shown on an example of region in the area of the Tabaga village. Research of this region will allow considering one of aspects of provision of security of construction of bridge, and also the underwater passage of gas pipeline operating since 2004.

Keywords: floods, forecasting, statistical models, deciphering of satellite images, geoinformation systems.