DBPapers
DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2016/B31/S12.036

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EXTREME FLOW IN ROMANIAN RIVER BASIN BARLAD

R. Mic, C.Corbus,M. Matreata
Wednesday 7 September 2016 by Libadmin2016

References: 16th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2016, www.sgem.org, SGEM2016 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-61-2 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 28 - July 6, 2016, Book3 Vol. 1, 273-280 pp

ABSTRACT
The main objective of this paper is the assessment of potential impact of climate change on extreme flow of Bârlad River using hydrological simulation.
Deterministic mathematical model CONSUL was used for flow simulation in small as well as in large, complex basins, which are divided into homogeneous units (sub-basins). The model simulates the most important hydrological processes on each sub-basin, namely: snowmelt, interception, retention in depressions, infiltration, runoff, hypodermic flow, percolation and base flow.
The hydrological model, calibrated by discharge hydrograph simulation during the historical period, was used in two cases: the current regime which consists in flow simulation during the reference period 1971-2000 and modified regime, when the flow for the period 2021-2050 was simulated.
As input data for both simulations were used the precipitation and temperature time series resulted from the simulations of climate change evolution performed with a regional climatic model.
In order to estimate the impact of climate change on the extreme flow in the Bârlad River Basin, the discharge time series, resulted from the two simulations, were comparatively analyzed.
The comparative analysis was done for the two periods, looking for the identification of changes at the level of monthly, seasonal and annual extreme discharges as well as at the level of instantaneous extreme discharges with different probabilities of exceedance, using theoretical curves of probability, estimated by applying the statistical computing methodology currently used in N.I.H.W.M.

Keywords: hydrological model, climate change, extreme flow, probability of exceedance, Bârlad River Basin