DBPapers
DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2015/B12/S2.077

PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF LANDSLIDE PROCESSES BASED ON MARKOV CHAINS

A. Victorov
Friday 7 August 2015 by Libadmin2015

References: 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2015, www.sgem.org, SGEM2015 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-32-2 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 18-24, 2015, Book1 Vol. 2, 579-586 pp

ABSTRACT
The goal of the paper is finding an interrelation between the current state of a landslide and dynamic parameters of the landsliding process. The analysis of the situation reveals that the aim can be achieved via employing specific probabilistic processes – the renewal processes. The study we committed shows the landslide activation number for a certain time can be considered a stochastic process related to the class of the renewal processes. We also showed that under the current conditions the stochastic processes can be considered a periodic Markov chain with the denumerable number of states. The current condition is here assumed to be the combination of the landslide last activation’s position in the activation change cycle and of the time since the last activation. The results were compared to empirical data about landslides of Seattle.

Keywords: Mathematical modeling; landslide process; Markov chain; renewal processes theory, landscape mathematical morphology.