R. L. Stevens
Wednesday 19 December 2018 by Libadmin2018


Environmental change is, today, an unavoidable cause of societal stress that leads to suffering and migration. The focus here is not on change itself, but on the local and regional resources and environment conditions that frame both the extent of change and the alternative actions that might mitigate effects. In this context, a modelling approach to resource and risk assessment and possible responses change is presented. Complex systems are not initially suitable for a bottom-up approach to modelling that assumes known boundary conditions. Rather, issues in the human-environment nexus require first a careful definition of boundaries, characterization of inner relationships, and identification of the problems to be addressed (step 1). Once described, reality and the representative conceptual system are the basis for the analytical subdivision of parameters (step 2) that will be modelled in increasing detail with information collected for the case study. One common tool is the system structural analysis, which evaluates the impact of components on each other within the system. The following synthetic, or constructive, phase of modelling (step 3) builds upon the understanding gained in the preceding analytical phase. The weighed impacts of the components regarding specific scenarios are summed and used for decision support. This structured methodology will be used in a proposed workshop related to migration and environment at the 2018 SGEM Vienna Green Conference. The multidisciplinary background of the participants will need to be further complemented by external expertise and homeland knowledge related to the selected problems of environmental migration and adaptation. The aim is to jointly publish the results of the extended workshop cooperation.

Keywords: environmental change, decision-support modeling, resources, migration

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