K. Kocur-Bera
Thursday 11 October 2018 by Libadmin2018


In the study it was assumed that it is possible to identify a set of geoinformation that has a mitigating or enhancing effect on financial losses caused by the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena. Among the wide group of factors of spatial, environmental, agroclimatic and economic natures, a ten-element set of geoinformation which affects the vulnerability of the area used for agricultural purposes to the resulting financial losses was identified. Thanks to the selected group of characteristics it was possible to construct a parameter which determined in a synthetic way the vulnerability of an entity to the occurrence of financial losses, considering the set of conditions present in the area. This parameter was called a vulnerability index, as its value determines the vulnerability of a community to the above-mentioned phenomena. This parameter was used for further analyses. Based on the network analysis it was found that the set of conditions occurring in individual entities is interconnected to form a network, while the developed vulnerability index describes a node level of the study network. The network had the nature of a scale-free network, as the distribution of nodes and links had the nature of a power function, while the characteristic coefficient of this function was in the range <2;3>. Moreover, other studies which involved finding the logarithm of the equation demonstrated that it is a straight line, which is additional proof of the existence of this type of network. Thanks to the use of two regionalization, key nodes and the regions of their influence, most and least exposed to the occurrence of losses caused by extreme weather phenomena, were identified. As a result, it is possible to identify the safe space of rural areas in Warmian-Masurian province. The most important original scientific achievement of the present study is the combination of different methods of spatial analysis to identify a safe space in rural areas. Thanks to this knowledge, planners, geodesists involved in arranging and shaping the space of rural areas, and administrators can decide how to use the study area, plan actions which will allow for overcoming the resulting losses, as well as prevent the marginalization of areas by the exodus of their users. Beneficiaries of the proposed solutions are mainly agricultural producers – farmers, whose sense of security has been strongly affected by ongoing climatic change. Legislative and economic conditions in Poland have resulted in a disregard of this social group for many years. Accession to the structures of the European Union has helped administrators to understand the necessity to equalize the opportunities for residents of rural and urban areas. The proposed solutions may be a part of programmes designed to achieve such an effect.

Keywords: rural areas, climate change, land use;

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