SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IN SARBISHEH BASALT-ANDESITE MINE, BIRJAND, USING OF MONT CARLO SIMULATION

11th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM2011, www.sgem.org, SGEM2011 Conference Proceedings/ ISSN 1314-2704, June 20-25, 2011, Vol. 1, 927-932 pp

ABSTRACT

Investment in the mine scope is one of the most risk able fields. In the new management
skills, risk management is a very important feature. During of the execution of a mine
project, the variation of each effective factor can affect on the execution, production and
efficiency, therefore a mining project manager must be knowledge about of any
effective parameter such as Annual productivity, annual benefit, annual cost and
exploitation time, in project The net present value (NPV) is one of the most important
methods for economical evaluation of project. In this method the present worth of
incomes and costs are calculated. A project with positive NPV is economic. As a case
study, the Sarbisheh basalt-andesit mine which is located at the 74 km from
southeastern of Birjand and 9 km from east of Sarbisheh is investigated. The access
road to mine is Birjand-Nehbandan road. The 1:500 topography maps from area were
made and evaluation deposit was done. Then the value of capital investments was
calculated. In next step the value of exploitation costs by considering of total production
and the scope of other activities were determined. The discounted cash flow (D.C.F)
table was accomplished by computing the tax, depreciation, return over and royalty
values. The NPV method, among of different methods, is applied for basalt-andesit
mine evaluation. As a result the NPV value obtained 6451918946 (RLS).

Keywords: Simulation- Mont Carlo- Risk analysis- Sensitivity analysis- Andesit-Basal