SIMULATION OF MULTISTAGE PETROLEUM EXPLORATION RESPECT TO IRANIAN OILFIELD GEOLOGICAL CONDITION

8th International Scientific Conference - SGEM2008, www.sgem.org, SGEM2008 Conference Proceedings/ ISBN: 954-918181-2, June 16-20, 2008, Vol. 1, 589-595 pp

ABSTRACT

In this article I considered the design of a computer simulation model that approximates
the exploration of a petroleum basin when exploration is conducted sequentially and
according to geological hypothesis with costs and performance characteristics typical of
an exploration firm. These features lead naturally to a model design in which a state of
nature is created. The exploration firm initially has no knowledge of this state, only of
hypothesis. In this model also, exploration decision are made according to principals of
Bayesian decision theory. Once constructed, such a model could be used by a firm in a
exploration test of the economic feasibility of exploring the basin for different scenarios
of basin endowment, modes of occurrence of the endowment and economic parameters,
for example, price, cost of capital and costs. In this model, I obtained response
relationships for exploration methods on geologic condition of Iranian oilfield. Here
based on the type of the geological anomaly, i.e. surface, subsurface and stratigraphic,
each exploration method gives a response. Because most of the oilfields in Iran are in
stratigraphic structures, I showed that we would obtain an accurate response from
subsurface geology exploration rather than other methods.

Keywords: Multistage Exploration, Bayesian Theory, Oilfield, Stratigraphic Trap, Geologic Condition.