CLIMATIC CHANGE IN THE STORM OCCURRENCE AND INTENSITY TRENDS

9th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference - SGEM2009, www.sgem.org, SGEM2009 Conference Proceedings/ ISBN 10: 954-91818-1-2, June 14-19, 2009, Vol. 2, 305-312 pp

ABSTRACT

This paper considers potential changes in storm occurrence and intensity over the
western Black Sea through analysis of long term series of wind and wave conditions
simulated with relatively high resolution. It is a result of coupling of atmospheric and
wave models and spans period of more than 60 years (1948-2008). On the basis of the
established methodology of wave climate clustering, wave events capable of producing
a noticeable morphological response are separated from the remaining part of the
dataset. Furthermore, storm events are classified by their intensity and a criterion for
filtration of weak seas are established. Thus, the dataset is reduced to series of storms of
considerable intensity and destructive potential, for which wind and wave conditions are
summarized in terms of wind speed magnitude, wave significant height, mean period
and direction. In order to be fully described, the means and maxima of these parameters
as well as other statistic estimates are calculated for each event. The climatic variability
of their occurrence and intensity is analyzed on basis of different criteria such as
number of stormy days and mean wave energy per storm season.

Keywords: climate change, wave climate, storminess, mean wave energy variability